OUR NATION NEEDS A FOREIGN "STRATEGY" NOT 'POLICY'......

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I actually put down the following view points of mine together in writing a few weeks back but did not feel like posting it on my blog as I did not want to sound like a hard core Narendra Modi fan who writes positive things about him irrespective of what he does. Over the last 2 weeks, I asked myself a question if that was indeed true and whether I really was a hard core Modi fan? After much mulling the answer was a loud and clear “NO”. I have always been fascinated by strong, visionary and hands-on leaders all my life who are far sighted and have the courage to do what they feel is right for their nation or corporate or any endeavour they lead. What usually added to my fascination was their conviction to stand up for their beliefs and go ahead with what they thought was good for their nation or corporate despite heavy opposition. And in some cases, I also believe that their vision truly makes sense from a strategic stand point and that the actions taken by them are perfectly aligned to their vision. Initially the actions look like the pieces of a Jigsaw puzzle and I really cannot make out anything. But when I happen to get the first glimpse of the potential big picture or even start to believe the various small  pieces are beginning to fit together, that is the moment when I start getting a sense of conviction and belief in the leader. This has been true for even the leaders in the corporate field like Jack Welch, Lou Gerstner, John Chambers, Elon Musk, Padmasree Warrior,  Sheryl Sandberg, Nandan Nilekani, Francisco D’Souza or management gurus like Peter Drucker, Michael Porter, C K Prahalad. I take time to build trust, respect and conviction in any leader and usually do it on the basis of available facts and  data points….

Let me take the example of India’s foreign policy as example and illustrate as to  why I think our Prime Minister has the right vision and is also taking the steps in that direction… 

Foreign Policy is a very critical aspect that determines a Nation’s progress on every front and also plays a vital role in our ability to defend the sovereignty of our nation as well as gain more respect in the comity of nations over the long term. I think the right word to use is “Foreign Strategy” as that is what it exactly is. Let’s look at China as a case in point. Over the years China has been discreetly doing the following things which may not make sense in isolation but probably make a lot of sense when looked at holistically. They have invested a lot of money and expertise  in Africa starting as long as 7-8 years ago and today they are the largest investor in that market and the Chinese have a large number of manufacturing plants spread across various countries in Africa, producing a variety of goods for exports from Africa, create huge number of jobs in the local markets, improve standard of living of the people in Africa as a by-product of job creation, increase the GDP of those countries, create new domestic markets in Africa which will drive domestic production and the demands for the Chinese products and so on… What do the Chinese get in return for all this? They get access to cheap raw materials from the resource rich Africa, access to cheap labour which is becoming a scarcity in China, access to new markets in Africa which will be very huge in future with the first mover advantage and most of all the loyalty and gratitude from the leaders of the African nations which have immensely been benefitted in terms of economic growth as a result of Chinese investments. The Chinese will get incredible economic benefits in future from the huge African market of 1 Billion people which has been growing very rapidly and also at the same time ensure that the fate of African economy is inextricably linked to China so that they have no option but to support China on diplomatic front as well as continue to give China the “Most Favoured Nation” status when it comes to trade and industry or terms of investments in future….This is “Strategy” of a nation in action…Africa has become a sophisticated and modern day version of a “colony” to China just as India had become to the British in 1600s thru’ the East India Company  “trade route”….Sounds very familiar…Isn’t it? 

And we have also seen a similar pattern albeit not to that extent, in the manner China has shifted its investments to Europe and started preferring it as their destination over the U.S. This started at the time when the Euro crisis was at its peak and when very few global investors (perhaps NO other global investors at all)  were willing to invest in Europe as its economy was in turmoil. That's when the Chinese made an entry into Europe with best deals and the Europeans lapped it up with gratitude as China was their only saviour during their darkest times. China was also able to get the best possible deals like land, raw materials, resources and tax breaks  etc from the grateful European nations at throw away prices as they desperately needed the Chinese investments which would create local jobs and give a boost to the local economies. Today it is showing up in the way the trade patterns of China or investments by China in Europe increased significantly over the last 5-6 years and simultaneously reduced the dependence on the Chinese  trade with the U.S. significantly. It is also showing up in the way a few of the European nations are unwilling to talk in favour of the U.S. when it comes to topics related to China. Many European nations have also started to realise that their economic fates are getting linked to that of China and also the sad reality that there is probably no way out….And then we hear recently about China’s increasingly aggressive behaviour on the military front in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean area where  they are gradually increasing their naval presence and also building ‘Artificial Islands’ in the middle of the sea with Airstrips and military bases….

One would be extremely naïve to believe that the 3 events mentioned above and have been slowly happening over the years with out a long term vision, a top notch strategy to accomplish that vision, a detailed action plan covering  operational details and timelines – all these artefacts clearly outlined and signed off by the leadership of China many years ago… And no one really knows what China’s vision is or what is it they are actually looking to achieve? 

Amidst all this, I am really surprised when even educated people in our country complain about the frequent foreign trips made by our Prime Minister. It is very sad to see our compatriots not realising the significance of Foreign Affairs and Strategic alliances with foreign nations in the over all scheme of our nation's growth and development on all fronts. 

Let me explain this with a parallel. When a CEO of an MNC travels 20 days a month to meet the top executives of key clients or establish relationships with prospective clients or for negotiating critical multi million dollar deals personally, the entire corporate world believes that it is the mark of a true leader who is indeed playing the most strategic role in the company and is admirably hands on as well. Such a CEO becomes a role model for being able to forge deals and for making the otherwise impossible things happen by sheer strength of his personal connects and charisma. 

Foreign Affairs is a very critical and arguably the most strategic and complex task for a nation. A lot of people in our country do not realize as to why the 'Secretary of State' is the most coveted and strategic role in the U.S. after the President. This very simple fact illustrates at one stroke as to how important foreign relations is for a nation even if it is the most powerful country in the world. It is extremely difficult to carry out tectonic shifts and realignment of direction or even convince the foreign nations to shift or re-align their existing policies, strategic partnerships, tie-ups and alliances etc in favor of our nation. These strategic alliances and relationships would have been formed over several decades and impressing upon the foreign nations to move over to our side is an extremely uphill task.

 Imagine trying to win over a client who has been working with a well entrenched competitor and impressing the client to partner with us by giving them rationale and showing convincing differentiators or strengths that will make them overlook the decades of partnership with our competitor who has been performing well and shifting their business to us. And let's remember that for such strategic change in alignments to happen, the CEO of the firm has to be physically present at the client location and drive negotiations himself and also be able to take certain critical decisions on the spot. And in the context of a nation, it is best if the Prime Minister or External Affairs Minister drives such conversations from the front and sitting in the office of the head of the foreign nation with whom we want to establish strategic partnership with. A CEO of an MNC drives some of the most critical deals or most strategic tie ups from the front and perhaps with full time involvement  for those few days because he knows that the goal will not be reached unless he leads from the front. I believe this is what our Prime Minister is exactly doing. Any executive playing a  leadership role in a corporate will very well understand that frequent international trips for short durations even if it means traveling in the First Class cabin of an Aircraft or staying in a top end luxury hotels is a very BIG PAIN indeed and is something they would love to avoid given an option. One needs to come out of the typical Indian mindset that traveling abroad is essentially for entertainment or relaxation or for enjoying luxurious foreign hospitality and delicious food. Ask any corporate executive who covers 3 different countries across the world within a week for serious business meetings and he would explain how it feels…..

One striking aspect in all the visits made by our Prime Minister is in the choice of the gift he chooses to give the leader of the nation that is hosting him. Every gift is very carefully chosen keeping in mind the mindset and interests  of that particular leader. A lot of research is done by the PMO to arrive at the custom gift each of the leaders. If one looks at the gifts given in the last few months to the leaders of the nations that he visited and the rationale for the same, one would instantly realise that to  the eyes of the recipient the gift would appear as very thoughtful and the gesture would be seen as that of showing great concern, genuineness and warmth. These are gifts that are not expensive at all but indeed very dear to these leaders’ hearts from an emotional and personal interest stand point and these gifts pertain to  aspects  that are very personal, most touching and extremely valued in their hearts. This is indeed a time tested gifting practice that some of the most successful CEOs and top sales leaders adopt and often these trigger the beginning of a long term and highly strategic  relationships between the 2 firms. 

As a nation we have NOT done a great job over the last few decades primarily because we hesitated in taking sides and always attempted to please every one all the time. This approach will never yield best results for any nation and we need to clearly decide and choose as to our long term and strategic partners are and who our short term or tactical partners are and make strategic partnership plans accordingly. This is what any Fortune 100 company would ideally do.  Isn’t it?

We also need to understand and appreciate that the outcomes and results of the diplomatic efforts by our leaders will not be visible immediately and it will take its own gestation period. Also in most cases the nature of diplomatic wins or the extent of strategic agreements or decisions made cannot be made public and will probably be never known to the general public. Perhaps the only way to see tectonic shifts happening is by noticing subtle signs or indirectly inferring based on certain behaviors exhibited on other seemingly unrelated fronts.

I will quickly mention some events on the foreign affairs front over the last 6-9 months and would like you to draw your own inferences on the possible outcomes:

1. The Indian PM visits the U.S. on the invitation of the President of the U.S. and makes a huge impression among the U.S. politicians with his epochal Madison Square Garden meeting with Indian diaspora. Many expected announcements are made on the political and economic affairs side by both nations including large investments etc. After a few days there is a low key announcement that U.S. has lifted the decades old sanctions on India being able to procure supplies needed  for civilian nuclear use

2. The President of SRI LANKA visits India as his maiden foreign visit after being elected as the new President. CIA mentioned in a side note about RAW playing a key and decisive role in that election which was denied by India and Sri Lanka

3. In a seemingly unconnected incident Sri Lanka chooses India as its strategic partner for a large nation building project and this was perhaps a last moment change from its initial decision that was in favor of a partnership with China

4. Our PM visits Australia, negotiates personally with their leaders and manages to close an agreement with them to become long term suppliers of nuclear fuel to India. This is  in addition to good progress made on investments front

5. The Canadian PM went out of his way to receive our PM breaking the usual protocols. The Canadian First Lady was dressed in a traditional Indian Saree while welcoming our PM which was probably an exceptionally  friendly gesture atleast one that I never heard of before in any country. In the whirlwind tour across Canada by both the PMs together, the Canadian PM for the first time in history traveled along with the Indian PM in Air India One instead of the usual Royal Canadian Air force Jet. Based on the earlier  U.S. decision to lift sanctions in the nuclear arena, the Canadians happily agree to supply Uranium to India on a long term basis

6. Our PM talks to King Salman of Saudi Arabia personally over phone and gets his buy in for the dare devil evacuation operation launched by India for its citizens in Yemen. Countries like the U.S. and UK post a note at their embassies in Yemen that their nationals should contact Indian Embassy in Yemen for evacuation or rescue related matters. 

7. Our PM was received warmly by the French President as a state guest. He personally negotiated the price of Rafael Jets and other Defence equipment to be procured by the Indian Airforce and also laid the foundations for the French Defence companies to make investments in India under ‘Make in India’ drive

8. Similar stories of success and several sales pitches on the India growth story made in countries like Germany, UK, Japan and others which were quite well received 

9. In an unprecedented and probably most unexpected manner, our PM makes it a point to visit the leaders of countries like Vietnam, Mongolia, South Korea and a few other Indian Ocean nations in addition to Bhutan, Bangladesh and Nepal where he received a standing ovation from the local leadership in response to the his views on development of nations and how we can work together with those nations. As I write this he is visiting the former Russian republics and trying to personally establish ties with them...

10. Our PM visits China to expand relations although it is known that it is our biggest adversary and that it will not be so easy to build relations. In a bid to attract Chinese investors in India and knowing that the Chinese media is controlled by the government, our PM did a very innovative thing by opening an account on the Chinese equivalent of Twitter that has incredibly huge user base in China and started communicating with the Chinese citizens directly,  starting this endeavor as early as one week before his scheduled  trip to China and all thru’ the duration of his  stay in China.

Let me now mention a few notable strategic fall outs from these endeavors:

1. The relationship between India and U.S. is at its peak now and both nations fully realize their strategic interdependence in the wake of potential threat from China and are closely working together on multiple fronts. For the Time 100 most influential people in the world list which also has 8-9 of the leading world national leaders,  Indian PM is the only person  for whom Obama has written a personal citation

2. India has used  a ‘necklace of pearls’ strategy and established good relationships in the ASEAN region with countries like Australia, Vietnam, South Korea, Mongolia, Japan and other Indian Ocean Island nations who now show a very clear albeit subtly visible inclination towards India vis. a vis. China. India has boldly decided to go ahead with the oil exploration in South China Sea in collaboration with Vietnam, without  paying heed to unwarranted threats from China to stay away. This decision was pending for the last few years due to lack of firmness or clarity on our side

3. In the geographical  neighborhood or SAARC nations, India has succeeded in building strong relationships  with Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Nepal and Bhutan which clearly places  it in  a dominant position with a lot of  respect and influence in the region. Position of leadership on the regional stage is the first step to that on the global stage.

4. Over the years India had become too dependent on Russia for supplies of nuclear fuel and all varieties of Defence equipment and perhaps reached a stage where we are at the mercy of Russia for these supplies and this was getting evident. Reducing the bargaining power of supplier and  reducing  dependence on a single source by signing up with new suppliers of the above materials and equipment such as Israel, France, Canada,  South Korea, Australia and of course the U.S.  is indeed a breakthrough of strategic nature. 

5. A notable aspect of the visits made by our Prime Minister to foreign nations is his great ability to engage the Indian diaspora and connect with them at a personal level. No other world leader would have received such a rousing reception from the people of his nation settled abroad, which is so evident and also on such a large scale. This infact  made the local political leaders in the foreign nations aware of the popularity and support for the PM in India thereby boosting their confidence immensely on India’s stable government and its decisiveness.

6. And last but not the least. If might be a  surprise to us that our PM is visiting small or what are perceived as non strategic nations like Mongolia, Uzbekistan and perhaps atleast a dozen others which are not even in the radar of any of the developed countries which typically ignore them and do not even bother about them. And to further add to the mystery, he is also giving them financial grants and offering technological or infrastructure support. The way I see it:, to be seen a leader in the comity of world, one must have loyal follower base… And what other better strategy can one think of other than what is being adopted by our Prime Minister… Imagine the way the leaders of these small and often ignored nations will feel when the Prime Minister of the World’s largest democracy which is also an emerging technology leader personally takes the pain of travelling over to their country and extending the hand of friendship and cooperation…. They will be totally swept off their feet and will back India unconditionally in global forums…

In a nutshell foreign affairs policies and strength of relationships/partnerships with other nations is a key for driving foreign investments to India. It is impossible to take up the activities on fronts such as education, health and nutrition, infrastructure development, generating adequate employment, food security, increasing standard of living etc which would help boost per capita income and GDP growth rate of our economy, independently in our own. It is imperative that we are able to attract significant amount of foreign investment to our country to be able to boost the growth in sectors like Manufacturing, Infrastructure, Retail, Defence etc which will create adequate jobs for our youth.

The most logical way of making it happen is to make the world aware of India’s potential, support available from Indian government in terms of policies and resources, give a strategic and  long term vision and  view of India’s plans for economic growth and development and finally talk about why should they choose India over other countries in the world to make their investments. This is best done by the nation’s leadership led by the PM himself visiting the nations which have potential to invest and meeting the nation’s leaders, top executives of MNCs, organise seminars and marketing campaigns, industry or trade  associations etc and enlisting their support by convincing or assuring them about the India Story. Also we need to keep in mind that support of the foreign governments go a long way in ensuring that investments happen. That is another task which our PM performed very effectively by forging strategic partnerships at a nation to nation level on defence,  foreign affairs, economy and other fronts.

In my opinion this is the role that a Prime Minister of a nation should be playing that includes strategic policy formulation on vital matters of national importance, keeping a tab on nation's finances and economy, monitoring the execution and implementation periodically, personally being involved in matters of strategic importance such as defence and foreign affairs, creating an FDI funnel by creating confidence both in the foreign national leaders and investors etc. the tactical decisions and operational issues and implementation will any way be handled by the Union Ministers with the support of the top bureaucrats and in conjunction with the state governments. It is enough if the PM reviews the progress on a periodic basis. 

The government over the last decade has been in a state of policy paralysis and indecision which is also reflected in the bureaucratic tendency to keep decisions pending under the fear of being targeted by agencies like CAG or CBI for the judgmental errors in  decisions they make on a daily basis. Our PM has streamlined the execution engine by handpicking  the bureaucrats based purely on merit and setting up a centralised clearance and approval mechanism under the purview of the PMO which helps guidance  or support to  the bureaucrats across ministries to enable a  faster decision making process. Besides the working style of our PM wherein he reaches out to bureaucrats directly on some matters creates a direct connection with them that helps him keep a tab on their performance and make quick changes in cases of non performance. The empowerment and autonomy given to Top bureaucrats and Defence Top guns within the overall policy framework defined by him also goes a long way in boosting their morale and self esteem. And knowing that they have a leader to back them up in times of difficulty gives them immense confidence to execute at their best levels of performance which is indeed a sea change from the earlier years.